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Fico Returns to Power

Slovakia had parliamentary elections this September, in which former populist Prime Minister Robert Fico听听percent of the vote. Last week, he听听with former party colleagues from HLAS-SD Peter Pellegrini and Andrej Danko from SNS. As a consequence of Fico鈥檚 election, the country may become more polarized, with weaker democratic institutions and a deteriorating human rights situation. On the international stage, it could lead to听, increased anti-EU sentiments, and a rise in isolationist tendencies.

Democratic Gains in Slovakia in the Last Five Years

In 2018, an investigative anti-corruption journalist Jan Kuciak and his fianc茅e were murdered in Slovakia, sparking the pro-democracy social movement "For a Decent Slovakia." Fico and his party SMER were involved in听听that had contributed听This movement had unseated Fico, who had been the prime minister听. Fico鈥檚 party lost the parliamentary election in 2020 to the catch-all anti-corruption party OLANO, led by Igor听Matovi膷. While many questioned OLANO's democratic potential, they explicitly adopted a pro-Western stance and refrained from interfering with the murder investigation.

The widespread corruption in Slovak society and the backlash to the murder played a significant role in the election of听Zuzana 膶aputov谩听in the presidential election of 2019.听膶aputov谩, an environmental lawyer and program director of an anti-corruption NGO, advocated for progressive causes such as听. She consistently polled as having the听听among politicians in Slovakia during her tenure as president. After Russia鈥檚 reinvasion of Ukraine,听膶aputov谩听took a strong pro-Ukrainian stance while also showing听. Her ability to unite a polarized Slovak population, often divided by hate speech from politicians on social issues, was crucial during the challenges of the pandemic and the neighboring conflict.

Setbacks to Democratization and Fico鈥檚 Return

Shortly after 2020, Slovakia became embroiled in internal conflicts, both within its four-party coalition in power led by OLANO, and between Prime Minister听Matovi膷听and President听膶aputov谩. The ineffectiveness of the cabinet in addressing various issues resulted in the cabinet losing the vote of confidence. Meanwhile, Fico's SMER party spread conspiracies accusing doctors of colluding with pharmaceutical companies and promoted anti-vaccine theories during the pandemic. In regards to the war in Ukraine, SMER adopted a pro-Russian stance in contrast to the foreign policy orientation of the government at the time,听听Thus, by capitalizing on the inefficiency of the cabinet and spreading disinformation on these two issues, SMER rebounded in the parliamentary polls.听

As part of his return strategy, Fico launched a defamation campaign and employed听. This has led to Caputova receiving听death threats, which she has cited as one of the reasons for her decision听. While the role of the President in Slovakia is mostly symbolic, the President helps the government navigate crises, as well as may counterbalance the prime minister and the cabinet on foreign policy. If Slovakia elects an anti-democratic candidate in the 2024 presidential election, there will not be a political figure who can check Fico on his populism in his domestic and foreign policy.听

Domestic Opposition to Fico听

The domestic democratic opposition to Fico has consisted of political parties which sought to challenge him in the parliamentary elections, such as the pro-EU Progressive Slovakia (PS), as well as civil society mobilization. PS has gained 18% of the vote, an improvement from its previous听in coalition with SPOLU in 2020. Their campaign strategy focused on Slovakia's future, casting. By shifting their attention from fighting right-wing extremism to speaking to the issue of corruption in Slovak society at large, PS was able to challenge its image as a party that only caters to urban residents of Bratislava. This result gives hope that PS can transform into a party that builds broad coalitions across Slovakia and continues to grow as a viable challenger to Fico's government.

As for resistance from civil society, there has not been a broad based social movement that emerged to challenge Fico鈥檚 parliamentary campaign. The 鈥淢ovement for a Decent Slovakia鈥� that pressured Fico to听听was the听听for democracy in the country since the Velvet Revolution in 1989. The movement was highly active from March to May of 2018, and kept Fico and his party accountable in the public spotlight after the murder. However, it gradually lost momentum after Fico stepped down. The news of Fico鈥檚 election was also not met with any significant anti-populist backlash protests in the streets, as for example听听in the US in 2016.听听

Transatlantic Relations

Fico may change his听on the war in Ukraine once he assumes office, as he has been known to alter his stance on foreign policy听. However, it is important to note that Fico suffered a significant political defeat in 2018 and has exhibited a level of radicalism in his rhetoric that was not previously observed.听, the position of Prime Minister would also provide Fico and some SMER officials with a shield against investigations into their alleged involvement in Kuciak's murder and other听. If Fico believes that his political victory was a result of his anti-Ukrainian positions, he may feel emboldened to implement them as policies to avoid another loss of power.听

There is a possibility that Fico鈥檚 coalition will support his听. To protect Slovak democracy, It will be crucial to elect a president who can counterbalance the coalition on its foreign policy and alert domestic and international audiences about their anti-democratic moves. Furthermore, a sustained effort to increase the capacity of civil society and support existing grassroots efforts is necessary, both to bolster Slovak democracy and to hold the Fico government accountable. This should be accompanied by continued efforts听for the next election. IIt is also possible to enhance transatlantic cooperation by building partnerships with pro-NATO governments in the region, such as those in the Czech听, as well as in听, where potentially a liberal government may be formed in the coming weeks.