When Washington, D.C., last , the alliance was celebrating a milestone. It was also and .
So there will be a certain feeling of d茅j脿 vu in the American capital when leaders from 32 nations , to discuss the state of the alliance as it turns 75.
Yet the scale of the challenges that NATO faces today, both within and without the organization, dwarfs what it confronted as it commemorated its 50th anniversary in 1999. The has now been raging on for more than two years. NATO also has to contemplate the and the challenges that brings to geopolitics. Meanwhile, various members of the alliance are also experiencing and .
In particular, the upcoming U.S. presidential election looms large for NATO. Republican candidate Donald Trump has been with the alliance. And close advisers suggest that he is serious about if he is elected president again.
Other issues on the NATO summit鈥檚 agenda include the development of a new to confront growing security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa and the introduction of a new secretary general, Mark Rutte.
But it鈥檚 the following four topics that will likely dominate discussions in Washington from July 9 to July 11. How the alliance tackles them will go some way in signaling the health of NATO as it turns 75 鈥 and the future direction of the alliance.
1. Ukraine membership: A battle of semantics?
NATO first expressed its support for but offered no timeline for moving forward. That state of limbo has continued to plague the alliance ever since. At the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the alliance , declaring: 鈥淲e will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met.鈥
This vague wording led to a fierce and frustrated public reaction from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who denounced the language as 鈥.鈥
The Washington summit will once again be a delicate exercise in semantics. A formal invitation to join will not be on the table for Ukraine, as several countries still oppose that step. The U.S. and Germany, in particular, have stated they first want to see when it comes to tackling corruption and upholding the rule of law.
The trick for NATO鈥檚 leaders will be to devise language in its official statement that can placate all parties. It would have to show some progress from last year, be welcome by Kyiv and still receive support from all NATO member states. The Biden administration has spoken of offering a 鈥渂ridge to membership,鈥 but other allies . They are pushing for words along the lines of outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg鈥檚 statement in April that Ukraine is on an 鈥.鈥
2. Supporting Ukraine: Shielding aid from political winds
Since the start of Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western states have provided significant military aid to Kyiv. But the most recent shipments have faced significant delays 鈥 the result of opposition from and similarly . These delays have had detrimental consequences on the battlefield for Ukraine as it tries to repel Russian momentum.
A key challenge for NATO will be how to institutionalize support for Ukraine while shielding it from the prevailing political winds among member states.
As a first step, NATO is set to take over the coordination of security assistance and training for Ukraine. According to Stoltenberg, this just reflects that 鈥.鈥 But it also aims to improve on the current process. Indeed, the current system of support on a country-by-country basis has not .
Additionally, Stoltenberg is pushing for a multiyear financial pledge from all member states .
But recent reports suggest this objective might end up . Member states may commit to only US$43 billion (40 billion euros) for one year, as . The extent to which the summit can institutionalize aid to Ukraine will be a key test.
3. China and the Indo-Pacific: Globalizing security
Just days before the Washington summit, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg that 鈥渟ecurity is not a regional matter but a global one.鈥 that 鈥淓urope鈥檚 security affects Asia, and Asia鈥檚 security affects Europe.鈥
NATO increasingly regards the European and Indo-Pacific theaters as interdependent, and this has been shaped by its growing concerns about China. It was only in 2019 that the alliance first formally discussed China as . Since then, NATO has adopted increasingly tougher language toward the authorities in Beijing.
In particular, China鈥檚 support for Russia during the war in Ukraine has greatly contributed to worsening relations with the West and . The summit this week will include, for the third time in a row, the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand 鈥 none of which are NATO members.
NATO鈥檚 leaders see China as a challenge but are far less clear on . Cooperation with NATO鈥檚 . The alliance also seems unsure as to what extent it should focus on Asia as opposed to Europe. And member states don鈥檛 agree on the . Developing a clearer strategy toward China will be among the priorities for those attending the 2024 summit.
4. Projecting unity: Cohesion in troubled times
The 75th-anniversary summit is meant as a celebration of NATO鈥檚 longevity and capacity to endure. There will certainly be positive headlines to share, noticeably the fact that 鈥 a long-standing goal for NATO that relatively few countries met until recently. NATO has also managed to provide significant military aid for Ukraine since 2022.
But NATO is also a political alliance, and one facing major headwinds. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n鈥檚 鈥減eace mission鈥 to Moscow, just days before the NATO summit, . Although French voters have opted against bringing the far-right National Rally to power 鈥 something that could have to NATO and Ukraine 鈥 the political landscape across NATO member states remains volatile.
And then, of course, there is the U.S. presidential election in November. A Trump victory might mean .
With the Washington, D.C., meeting being touted as a time to celebrate the longevity of NATO, the summit might well be judged by the degree to which member states can continue to present a united front amid thorny issues and uncertain political futures for individual member states.
, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center,
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